A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
